Managed Growth Strategy
Ranking of Importance - Elements
Please rank from important > somewhat important > not important for each question
Existing Conditions Study
Existing Policy Review
An existing policy review would take a deeper dive into the existing plans, zoning, and other land use policy to determine which policies currently create capacity constraints. We are already beginning this by reviewing existing master plans for core values and guiding principles, and an existing policy review would deepen that analysis.
Existing Conditions Study
Infrastructure Capacity Review
An infrastructure review may include the review and mapping of the current capacity and utilization of infrastructure, taking into account pipe width, sewer pump station capacity, electricity availability, current roadway capacity, and/or similar factors. This would not only help develop potential future land use scenarios, but also it would also help a fiscal analysis. This would give information on how much capacity is available before use would cross a threshold, requiring a capital improvement or a new ongoing cost.
Existing Conditions Study
Service Capacity Review
A similar study could be undertaken of existing community service capacities and utilizations. This could include police, fire, EMS, and/or schools. For example, studies could estimate how many students a school could absorb before new administrative staff would be necessitated. This may be challenging to estimate accurately due to the complexities inherent in service provision.
Existing Conditions Study
Natural Resources, Open Space & Climate Resilience Evaluation
A MGS could include an identification of critical resource areas such as aquifer, wetlands, tree canopy, and habitat. It could also identify strategies to protect those resources. This may include using GIS modeling or other methods to identify areas of run-off, seeking water quality or other studies to determine impaired wetlands or rivers, estimating impact of types of development upon natural resources, and research of impact mitigation--depending on existing conditions.
Public Outreach and Visioning
Key Stakeholder Interviews
Key stakeholder interviews include 1:1 interviews and focus groups to discuss existing conditions, desired futures, guiding principles, and/or evaluating potential scenarios.
Public Outreach and Visioning
Online Engagement
Online engagement could include a simple survey, but it could also utilize NMCOG’s social pinpoint tools or other online tools, which include collective mapping, visual preference, selecting various options given a limited budget, and more. This input could be used to create guiding principles, create initial scenarios, select scenarios, and/or vet assumptions.
Public Outreach and Visioning
In-Person Public Meetings
Major workshops or public meetings, either in-person or virtual, could assist in creating guiding principles, creating initial scenarios, selecting scenarios, and/or vetting assumptions.
Public Outreach and Visioning
Alternative Outreach
Alternative outreach could include creative strategies to reach people where they’re at. This is especially useful to reach those who don’t traditionally participate in the civic process. This may include attending existing groups, pop-ups at popular locations, mailings, door-to-door, small meetings in key locations, youth outreach, senior outreach, or other special outreach methods.
Population and Market Projection and Analysis
Population Projection
A population and household projection would be based on previous trends, cohort survival model, and/or other methods. It would project how much Chelmsford would grow based on existing conditions for next 10, 20, or 30 years. This would include not only topline numbers, but also various categories such as income level and age (including workforce and school-age children).
Population and Market Projection and Analysis
Housing Demand Projection
A housing demand projection includes an analysis of housing needs based on projections. A simple version of this was completed as part of the Housing Production Plan, which could be sufficient for the MGS. However, a more complex version could be undertaken if additional projections of typology, housing cost levels, or other items are needed.
Population and Market Projection and Analysis
Market Study
Market study methodologies include real estate trends, peer comparisons, and data collection from Chelsmford including rents, sales prices, vacancy, and more to determine the most likely and viable forms of residential, commercial, and/or industrial growth. This could involve analyzing local and regional competitive markets to identify socioeconomic trends influencing development decisions.
Population and Market Projection and Analysis
Labor Study
A labor study would analyze labor availability to determine potential for future growth. This could involve assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the local and regional workforce, identifying potential opportunities based on local skill sets and educational attainment levels, and evaluating talent pipelines. This goes a step further from a market study to determine if there are commercial opportunities created by the region’s labor that are not being taken advantage of in Chelmsford.
Population and Market Projection and Analysis
Other Projections
Other projections could be integrated to add complexity to population projections or evaluate changing impacts. For example, rather than assuming households will utilize the same amount of water or create the same amount of traffic impact than the current moment, trends could be analyzed to determine whether it could be expected those levels of consumption to increase or decrease over the time horizon of the plan. This information would be combined with scenario analysis.
Scenario Development
Future Land Use Map
A key output of an MGS could be a desired future land use map—or potentially multiple maps representing different scenarios to pick from. The creation of these maps can be influenced by tasks in the Existing Conditions Study and/or Public Outreach categories. These maps could be analyzed though the following lenses to assist the community in selecting a preferred scenario.
Scenario Development
Population Modeling
Population modeling utilizes modeling software and assumptions to create one or more scenarios. This integrates past trends with various changed assumptions. For example, the model could produce a high-growth and low-growth scenario. It could determine where in Chelmsford that growth would occur under existing conditions or if various assumptions were changed—for example, densification of zoning or additional preservation of open space.
Scenario Development
Labor or Job Modeling
In addition to population, job growth can also be modeled based on existing trends and different assumptions of land use decisions. This could include adding or taking away space for various broad use categories, i.e., commercial, industrial, etc., and changing assumptions about labor availability. Various modeling methodologies could be used.
Scenario Analysis
Infrastructure Utilization Modeling
Basic modeling utilizing engineering methods could be undertaken to estimate the amount of municipal resources different scenarios would use, such as sewer, water, or road capacity. For example, analysts could develop an estimate of gallons per day (GPD) of water used for a typical household and the number of households per acre of a typical land use to evaluate the overall GPD various scenarios might use.
Scenario Analysis
Infrastructure Cost Evaluation
Analysts can estimate the cost of required infrastructure improvements. For example, knowing that a particular development might necessitate more GPD than a current water main could supply, analysts would develop a solution and estimate the cost of that solution. This could be a simple calculation or a more complex estimate, but it is generally a stronger indicator of cost than assuming an average service cost per person or household. This is often called an incremental or variable cost approach.
Scenario Analysis
Service Estimations
Similar to infrastructure utilization modeling, analysts can estimate the increases or decreases in service utilization from police, fire, EMT, and/or schools of various scenarios. Just as with infrastructure, this is best paired with a thorough analysis of existing capacities, since service costs tend not to increase directly correlated with population growth. A more robust analysis takes into account the increasing cost of services even without population growth and the “stairstep” nature of service costs--i.e., new growth might cost very little in new services until it crosses a threshold that requires more capacity to be added such as a new fire station, new classrooms, or a new school. This is often called an incremental or variable cost approach.
Scenario Analysis
Revenue Modeling
As part of modeling, analysts could estimate increases or decreases in assessed value to estimate tax revenue impacts of various scenarios.
Scenario Analysis
Transportation Analysis
Analysts could evaluate scenarios based on their ability to support different modes of transportation. For example, analysts could predict walk score, evaluate density required to support fixed-route transit, evaluate connection to jobs or amenities with alternative transportation such as transit or trails, or undertake GIS analysis of vehicular impacts based on areas of jobs and amenities.
Recommendations Creation
Guiding Principles
At the very least, an MGS could finalize a list of guiding principles that boards, committees, and staff should utilize when making land use decisions. Decisions could be framed through whether they follow the full set of relevant guiding principles.
Recommendations Creation
Zoning Evaluation
Utilizing a future land use map or, if a future land use map is not created, the set of guiding principles, analysts could determine whether zoning amendments are required and what amendments would be required to meet that desired future state. This could also include evaluating changes to the master plan or other foundational planning documents.
Recommendations Creation
Phasing, Timing, and Sequencing Growth
Analysts could further breaking down the future state into identification of short-, medium-, and long-term priority planning areas. This way, the actions could be undertaken to open new areas of growth in a managed way, and also ensuring that limited annual resources are used on wisely.
Recommendations Creation
Monitoring Metrics
Analysts could assist the Town in creating assessment metrics such as new units by type/location, SHI progress, commercial tax base changes, traffic counts, open space acreage or any other types of tracking measures. This may include the identification of data sources and procedures to review these tracking measures.
Recommendations Creation
Regulatory & Policy Tools
Analysts could develop non-zoning regulatory and policy tools to guide Chelmsford to its desired vision. This could include, but is not limited to, water/sewer allocation policies to prioritize key areas. This could also include permitting fees, policies, and procedures, marketing to developers and/or employers, or other strategies.
Recommendations Creation
Infrastructure Recommendations
If infrastructure modeling and cost estimation are completed, infrastructure recommendations could include a detailed workplan of infrastructure improvements to guide and accommodate growth in sensible and beneficial areas. If modeling and cost estimation are not completed, it could include at least broader recommendations for future engineering and design studies. Broadly, this will list which investments are needed to support desired growth (e.g., sewer extensions in target areas, complete streets, sidewalk connections).
Recommendations Creation
Funding Strategy
Planners could develop and outline potential grant opportunities and funding options for any of the recommendations.
